From point forecasts to multivariate probabilistic forecasts: The Schaake shuffle for day-ahead electricity price forecasting

Application of a New Hybrid Method for Day-Ahead Energy Price Forecasting in Iranian Electricity Market

Abstract- In a typical competitive electricity market, a large number of short-term and long-term contracts are set on basis of energy price by an Independent System Operator (ISO). Under such circumstances, accurate electricity price forecasting can play a significant role in improving the more reasonable bidding strategies adopted by the electricity market participants. So, they cannot only r...

Forecasting day ahead electricity price using ARMA methods

Day-ahead Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets by a New Hybrid Forecast Method

Energy price forecast is the key information for generating companies to prepare their bids in the electricity markets. However, this forecasting problem is complex due to nonlinear, non-stationary, and time variant behavior of electricity price time series. Accordingly, in this paper a new strategy is proposed for electricity price forecast. The forecast strategy includes Wavelet Transform (WT...

The Impact of Weather Forecasts on Day-Ahead Power Prices

A Hybrid Model for Gefcom2014 Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting a Hybrid Model for Gefcom2014 Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting

This paper provides detailed information on Team Poland’s approach in the electricity price forecasting track of GEFCom2014. A new hybrid model is proposed, consisting of four major blocks: point forecasting, pre-filtering, quantile regression modeling and post-processing. This universal model structure enables independent development of a single block, without affecting performance of the rema...